Satoshi
Countdown

Twenty one million. No more. Ever.

Live supply, fiat expansion, and the policy fights that decide whether hard money gets a fair market. One thesis: absolute scarcity.

Sats remaining to mine
92,704,375,000,000
927,043.75 BTC left · 95.59% of supply mined · about 2140 final sat

News & insights

What the desk is watching

Nine live pulls across Bitcoin, policy, and macro. Source diverse, topical first.

Thesis Bitcoin Magazine

Iranian Hacking Crew Charged in Sprawling Theft Case — Including $6M Bitcoin Ransom

Bitcoin Magazine Iranian Hacking Crew Charged in Sprawling Theft Case — Including $6M Bitcoin Ransom A $10 million reward is being offered b…

Wire Cointelegraph

Binance opens crypto trading to AI agents with user-set controls

Binance’s Agent OS lets AI agents access market data, execute trades and make payments while giving users control over permissions and accou…

Wire CryptoSlate

Tether-backed Antalpha’s loan TVL declined $696 million as its gold bet returned a $22 million loss

Loans facilitated fell to $1.353 billion and guidance points below the second-quarter result, while Aurelion’s gold positions dominated the …

Wire Cointelegraph

Here’s what happened in crypto today

Need to know what happened in crypto today? Here is the latest news on daily trends and events impacting Bitcoin price, blockchain, DeFi, We…

Wire Decrypt

Bitcoin Is Pumping But Prediction Market Traders Aren't Convinced

Bitcoin's sharpest rally in five months flipped prediction-market odds from bearish to a coin flip—but the longer-term bets still price in a…

Wire CryptoSlate

MAYAChain’s $1.36 million exploit spiraled into nearly $11 million of pool damage

A 23-message transaction corrupted pool accounting before CACAO fell 88.7%, widening the damage that Maya's recovery plan still must reconci…

Wire CoinDesk

U.S. CFTC chief puts staff on notice to create crypto regulations if Clarity Act fails

Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Mike Selig told the inaugural gathering of the Innovation Advisory Committee that his agency w…

Wire Decrypt

CFTC Chair Readies Crypto Rules If Congress Fails to Pass Clarity Act

The CFTC chair said staff is already exploring a crypto market structure framework and could move quickly to propose rules if Congress fails…

Wire Decrypt

Alibaba's Revenue Jumps 9% as AI Cloud Growth Hits 45%—But a Profit Plunge Sends Shares Lower

Cloud and AI product revenue accelerated in the June quarter, but a 75% drop in net income extended Alibaba's run of profit misses to a fift…

The Bitcoin thesis

Hard money in a soft money world

Bitcoin is absolute scarcity competing with politically expandable money. Fixed issuance. Soft money as policy. Markets that either clear the path or push liquidity abroad.

  • Fixed issuance schedule

    Subsidy halves every 210,000 blocks. Current reward 3.125 BTC → 1.5625 BTC at block 1,050,000 (about 602 days).

  • Fiat is a policy choice

    M2, deficits, and rate regimes change with politics. Bitcoin’s monetary policy is client consensus, not a committee vote.

  • Rules need markets

    CLARITY style market structure and executive posture decide whether U.S. capital can treat BTC as a first class asset, or leave liquidity offshore.

Protocol desk

BIPs & the reference client

Bitcoin Improvement Proposals are how the network documents design changes. Read them clearly, then follow the code where consensus actually ships.

Cornerstone proposals

  • BIP 42

    Finite monetary supply. The 21 million cap written into the process.

  • BIP 141

    Segregated Witness. Capacity and malleability fixes at the consensus layer.

  • BIP 340

    Schnorr signatures for secp256k1. Cleaner multisig and aggregation path.

  • BIP 341

    Taproot. Script privacy and efficiency for modern spending paths.

  • BIP 3

    Updated BIP process. How proposals move from draft toward deployment.

Policy radar

CLARITY Act & Trump alerts

Regulation and the White House set the institutional on ramp. Track the bill. Watch the headlines that move odds.

Passed House · Awaiting Senate floor

H.R. 3633 · Digital Asset Market Clarity Act

A market structure bill that would split SEC and CFTC oversight of digital commodities, set registration paths for intermediaries, and constrain a Fed retail CBDC. Separate from the enacted GENIUS Act on stablecoins.

As of mid July 2026, Senate Banking reported a substitute on Jun 1. Floor vote faces a tight window before the roughly Aug 7 recess. Midterms make a 2026 slip costly.

  1. Introduced May 29, 2025
  2. Passed House Jul 17, 2025 · 294 to 134
  3. Senate Banking reported Jun 1, 2026
  4. Senate floor vote Pending
  5. To President Pending
  6. Became law Pending
Open on Congress.gov →

Trump & Bitcoin alerts

Executive crypto posture, PAC flows, and ethics fights that spill into CLARITY.

No Trump or Bitcoin alerts in the latest pull. Refresh shortly.

Bitcoin treasuries

Who holds the stack

Public companies, private firms, governments, ETFs and exchanges, and DeFi wrappers. Five ledgers of capital that treats Bitcoin as reserve.

4,189,633 BTC across five ledgers As of July 2026
1,263,186 BTC tracked in category 197 entities Listed companies holding BTC on the balance sheet.
# Holder Ticker / code BTC Est. USD
1 Strategy United States MSTR 843,775 $61.50B
2 Twenty One Capital United States XXI 43,514 $3.17B
3 Metaplanet Inc. Japan MPJPY 43,000 $3.13B
4 MARA Holdings United States MARA 36,303 $2.65B
5 Bitcoin Standard Treasury United States BSTR 30,021 $2.19B
6 Bullish United States BLSH 24,300 $1.77B
7 Strive United States ASST 19,921 $1.45B
8 SpaceX United States SPCX 18,712 $1.36B
9 Coinbase Global United States COIN 16,492 $1.20B
10 Riot Platforms United States RIOT 15,680 $1.14B
11 CleanSpark United States CLSK 13,924 $1.01B
12 Tesla United States TSLA 11,509 $838.8M
13 Hut 8 United States HUT 10,278 $749.1M
14 Trump Media & Technology United States DJT 9,542 $695.4M
15 Block United States XYZ 9,032 $658.3M

Holdings as of July 2026. Figures change with disclosures. Not financial advice.

World acceptance

Where Bitcoin is welcome

From El Salvador’s curso legal experiment to bans and strategic interest. Policy geography for hard money.

Loading map…

  • Curso legal / voluntary tender
  • Strategic reserve interest
  • Legal and regulated
  • Restricted
  • Banned or hostile

Prediction markets

Bitcoin & economy odds

Live odds for Bitcoin price paths, CLARITY Act passage, and related macro bets. Crowd priced signals next to the news wire.

Bitcoin $55.30M vol

What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?

$2.70M liq · 31 markets · ends Jan 1, 2027

Top 5 selections

  1. Reach $75,000 85.5%
  2. Reach $80,000 59.5%
  3. Dip to $60,000 45.5%
  4. Reach $85,000 43.5%
  5. Dip to $55,000 33.5%
Bitcoin $12.57M vol

What price will Bitcoin hit in August?

$1.27M liq · 19 markets · ends Sep 1, 2026

Top 5 selections

  1. Dip to $70,000 66.5%
  2. Reach $75,000 64.6%
  3. Reach $77,500 30.8%
  4. Dip to $67,500 27.5%
  5. Reach $80,000 16.5%
Bitcoin $879.6K vol

Bitcoin above ___ on August 21?

$727.7K liq · 11 markets · ends Aug 21, 2026

Top 5 selections

  1. Above $52,000 100%
  2. Above $54,000 100%
  3. Above $56,000 100%
  4. Above $58,000 100%
  5. Above $60,000 100%
Fed $204.7K vol

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

$65.3K liq · 6 markets · ends Dec 31, 2026

Top 5 selections

  1. no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026 50.5%
  2. 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026 34.5%
  3. 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026 15.5%
  4. 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026 3%
  5. 4 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026 0.2%
CLARITY $45.9K vol

Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?

$18.6K liq · 15 markets · ends Jan 1, 2027

Top 5 selections

  1. Rand Paul vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act 46%
  2. John Fetterman vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act 38.5%
  3. Mike Lee vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act 34.5%
  4. Ruben Gallego vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act 31%
  5. Thom Tillis vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act 30%
CLARITY $9.8K vol

How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?

$26.4K liq · 8 markets · ends Jan 1, 2027

Top 5 selections

  1. over 58 Senators vote for the Clarity Act 41.5%
  2. over 55 Senators vote for the Clarity Act 36.5%
  3. over 50 Senators vote for the Clarity Act 33%
  4. over 62 Senators vote for the Clarity Act 26%
  5. over 64 Senators vote for the Clarity Act 20.5%

Odds refresh on each page load. Not financial advice.

The wire

Bitcoin & macro headlines

Fresh headlines on Bitcoin, policy, and macro. Filtered toward scarcity, regulation, and the money that competes with a fixed supply.

Cointelegraph

Here’s what happened in crypto today

Need to know what happened in crypto today? Here is the latest news on daily trends and events impacting Bitcoin price, blockchain, DeFi, Web3 and crypto regulation.

Bitcoin Magazine

Bitcoin ETFs Add Over $1B as Investor Sentiment Turns Bullish

Bitcoin Magazine Bitcoin ETFs Add Over $1B as Investor Sentiment Turns Bullish Investors have been buying shares in the American funds this week. This post Bitcoin ETFs Add Over $1B as Investor Sentiment Turns Bullish fi…

Macro lens

Price, money supply, debt

The charts that frame the thesis: Bitcoin versus expanding dollars and national debt.

Bitcoin

Absolute scarcity priced in dollars

M2 money supply

Expanding claims on goods & assets

U.S. national debt

Fiscal path Bitcoin is measured against

Supply clock

Mining progress

95.59% of the 21M supply mined · 927,043.75 BTC remaining

Block reward
3.125 BTC
Blocks to halving
86,654
Difficulty
127.48T
Est. days to halving
~602